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May. 4th, 2009 11:42 amWhat I learned today:
The law of large numbers does *not* imply that I'm more likely to earn the expected value by investing $100,000 than I am to get the expected value when betting $1.
I would do well to remember that I am as unlucky with stock picks as I am with dice. (No, no new financial crisis. I just finally detected the flaw in my thinking.)
The law of large numbers does *not* imply that I'm more likely to earn the expected value by investing $100,000 than I am to get the expected value when betting $1.
I would do well to remember that I am as unlucky with stock picks as I am with dice. (No, no new financial crisis. I just finally detected the flaw in my thinking.)
